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Posted by Manolo
on March 02, 2003 at 05:42:36:
If Cunningham runs as expected, his name recognition and powerful Jersey City machine could overwhelm votes coming out of Bayonne for his opponents - especially if his campaign plays up his role as a U.S. Marine and former marshal. Between the lines Two views of the 31st District Hudson Reporter Cunningham is so strong, these two old hands said, that if the election were to pit a ticket of Cunningham and Lou Manzo for State Senate and Assembly, Cunningham would likely carry Manzo along with him. Manzo makes a good runningmate to help Cunningham collect votes in Bayonne. If Cunningham runs as expected, his name recognition and powerful Jersey City machine could overwhelm votes coming out of Bayonne for his opponents - especially if his campaign plays up his role as a U.S. Marine and former marshal. The opposing ticket - which could include Jersey City Council President L. Harvey Smith as a candidate for State Senate, and Assembly Incumbents Joseph Doria (who is also mayor of Bayonne) and Elba Perez-Cinciarelli, would need a heavy boost from Bayonne to counter the strong black vote Cunningham's candidacy could generate. There are more than 66,000 registered voters in Jersey City, and more than 31,000 in Bayonne. Historically, about half of the Democratic voters come out in Bayonne for a primary. While Cunningham might not appeal greatly to Bayonne, Manzo could, stealing votes away from Perez-Cinciarelli. Bayonne's Tony Chiappone could aid Cunningham's efforts by even unseating Doria while a Chiappone alley, Melba Walsh, in seeking the county executive spot, could help this rebel ticket by stealing votes that could go toward DeGise. Last year isn't this year Some people might mistakeningly point to last year's primary, saying that Cunningham couldn't get Bernard Hartnett elected. But the two old hands claim this year's primary is different. Last year, Cunningham's candidate, Hartnett, battled DeGise, backed by Rep. Bob Menendez (D-33 rd Dist.). But a significant difference was the fact that Menendez's name was on the ballot and Cunningham's name was not. There is an old political adage that says that votes don't translate well. This means that people committed to Cunningham will not come out as strongly for someone Cunningham supports as for Cunningham himself. If Cunningham runs, his name will top the ballot, whereas Menendez's won't appear on the ballot at all. This will pose a serious test for Doria's organization to get out his vote. You can rest assured that Cunningham will. Manzo, a white candidate, could help reduce the Bayonne vote count. While Bayonne - known not to vote for minority candidates - might come out for Doria, they might also switch to Manzo over Perez- Cinciarelli. When pressed to choose between two black candidates for Senate, those same voters may also pick Cunningham, the ex-Marine, over a Jersey City councilman.
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