Posted by UBERHIPPY on June 30, 2004 at 13:23:18:

Ear to the breeze, the line-up is Lou Manzo (the only announced candidate, so far), Acting Mayor L. Harvey Smith, Jerramiah Healy, Willie Flood, and Jim Carroll.

As the incumbent, L. Harvey Smith has the lead. Mayor Smith can use every senior, youth, and cultural affairs event organized by the City as an opportunity to greet the voters. Press conferences, groundbreakings, and other media dabbles can keep Harvey Smith's name and face in front of the voters. It is suggested that -- to some degree -- L. Harvey Smith is the HCDO candidate. Smith also faces hurdles. The brilliantly conceived and perfectly executed Cunningham campaign for Senate (along with an inept HCDO effort) derailed Smith last year. He is still handicapped by that wreckage. L. Harvey Smith will need to run inside, praising the memory of Glenn Cunningham while opposing a Cunningham Organization candidate. Though given a head start, at this moment Mayor Smith seems to be standing still, watching others moving towards him. He needs to start running.

The rumor is that Sandra Cunningham is running for State Senate in the 31st. If this turns out to be true, I'd suggest to Joe Doria that he use every spare moment between now and election day to work on a really moving concession speech. Part II of this same rumour is that the Cunningham Organization is backing Willie Flood for Mayor. Working to Flood's advantage is that Ward F should see a tremendous turnout to ensure Sandra's Senate triumph. Willie Flood must quickly demonstrate traction in Wards A, B, C, D, and E. If she doesn't do this, it won't be hard for L. Harvey Smith to appeal to the residents of Ward F that they shouldn't throw their votes away on a sentimental notion.

Both Lou Manzo and Jerramiah Healy are solid contenders. Lou Manzo, though quickly outdistanced by Schundler in the early nineties, exhibited speed and endurance in 2001. Plus, as an Assemblyman, Lou has any number of tools at his disposal for connecting with the media and the residents of the 31st. Counted out of the money by one and all in '97, Healy managed to put Bret Schundler, then the hands-down favorite, in a run-off. As Councilman-at-Large Healy, can attend in an official capacity all municipal events. It seems that one faction of the HCDO supports Healy. At the moment, the Manzo and Healy groups are doing a very good job of ripping each other apart. As for advancing their own candidate, that doesn't seem to be a priority.

And don't do like they did at one Jersey City watering hole and temple to the goddess of chance (though they later obtained forgiveness) and slam the door in the face of a "back stretch" candidate. There was a time when the name SHEIL stared down from every building, but McCann won. Four years later everybody knew that with all the developers, organization and police behind him, Gerry McCann couldn't be beat. Reporters would wander down to the CUCCI FOR MAYOR hq only to pick up a joke story for page 5. But Jerry Mecca showed up with a check for 100k. Immediately Cucci moved to page 1 and a few months later McCann moved out of 280 Grove. History shows that anyone might become Mayor of Jersey City.

Every business bigger than the bodega on the corner is going to budget a couple of grand for the front-runners. But, those holdin' the purse-strings ain't gonna risk culture shock on the day after the election. Everybody on the ballot can figure a couple of hundred each from a way long list of donors. So eat, drink, and run for mayor! Got some vacation time comin'? Then do a little leg work and get those petition signatures! Hold a bunch of dinners. Put your unemployable friends and relatives on the campaign payroll. Who knows? You just might wind up with the brass ring in November. And there's all them consolation prizes out there if one of the big guys decide to hedge their bets by buying you out. The gravy train is rolling into the station! All aboard!

Anyhow, the clock is ticking (or LCDing more likely). July and August, everybody is at the lake, beach or BBQ. The voters don't want to hear about politics during the good ol' summer time. The first week of September is back-to-school, which is an attention-grabber for those with little kids. So, everything has gotta be in place for an 8 week sprint. And the local electioneering signal has gotta get above the noise of the Presidential election. At the same time, the mayor's race campaigns can't get to the point of obnoxious. Then, Joe and Jane Citizen'll just zone out the whole thing.

Plus, there's still the echoes of Bobby J, Barry, and Byrne.

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• History Frank Hague's Ghost 13:38:07 06/30/04 (0)

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: Ear to the breeze, the line-up is Lou Manzo (the only announced candidate, so far), Acting Mayor L. Harvey Smith, Jerramiah Healy, Willie Flood, and Jim Carroll.

: As the incumbent, L. Harvey Smith has the lead.  Mayor Smith can use every senior, youth, and cultural affairs event organized by the City as an opportunity to greet the voters.  Press conferences, groundbreakings, and other media dabbles can keep Harvey Smith's name and face in front of the voters.  It is suggested that -- to some degree -- L. Harvey Smith is the HCDO candidate.  Smith also faces hurdles.  The brilliantly conceived and perfectly executed Cunningham campaign for Senate (along with an inept HCDO effort) derailed Smith last year.  He is still handicapped by that wreckage.  L. Harvey Smith will need to run inside, praising the memory of Glenn Cunningham while opposing a Cunningham Organization candidate.  Though given a head start, at this moment Mayor Smith seems to be standing still, watching others moving towards him.  He needs to start running.

: The rumor is that Sandra Cunningham is running for State Senate in the 31st.  If this turns out to be true, I'd suggest to Joe Doria that he use every spare moment between now and election day to work on a really moving concession speech.  Part II of this same rumour is that the Cunningham Organization is backing Willie Flood for Mayor.  Working to Flood's advantage is that Ward F should see a tremendous turnout to ensure Sandra's Senate triumph.  Willie Flood must quickly demonstrate traction in Wards A, B, C, D, and E.  If she doesn't do this, it won't be hard for L. Harvey Smith to appeal to the residents of Ward F that they shouldn't throw their votes away on a sentimental notion.  

: Both Lou Manzo and Jerramiah Healy are solid contenders.  Lou Manzo, though quickly outdistanced by Schundler in the early nineties, exhibited speed and endurance in 2001.  Plus, as an Assemblyman, Lou has any number of tools at his disposal for connecting with the media and the residents of the 31st.  Counted out of the money by one and all in '97, Healy managed to put Bret Schundler, then the hands-down favorite, in a run-off.  As Councilman-at-Large Healy, can attend in an official capacity all municipal events.  It seems that one faction of the HCDO supports Healy.  At the moment, the Manzo and Healy groups are doing a very good job of ripping each other apart.  As for advancing their own candidate, that doesn't seem to be a priority.

: And don't do like they did at one Jersey City watering hole and temple to the goddess of chance (though they later obtained forgiveness) and slam the door in the face of a "back stretch" candidate.  There was a time when the name SHEIL stared down from every building, but McCann won.  Four years later everybody knew that with all the developers, organization and police behind him, Gerry McCann couldn't be beat.  Reporters would wander down to the CUCCI FOR MAYOR hq only to pick up a joke story for page 5.  But Jerry Mecca showed up with a check for 100k.  Immediately Cucci moved to page 1 and a few months later McCann moved out of 280 Grove.  History shows that anyone might become Mayor of Jersey City.

:Every business bigger than the bodega on the corner is going to budget a couple of grand for the front-runners.  But, those holdin' the purse-strings ain't gonna risk culture shock on the day after the election.  Everybody on the ballot can figure a couple of hundred each from a way long list of donors.  So eat, drink, and run for mayor!  Got some vacation time comin'?  Then do a little leg work and get those petition signatures!  Hold a bunch of dinners.  Put your unemployable friends and relatives on the campaign payroll.  Who knows?  You just might wind up with the brass ring in November.  And there's all them consolation prizes out there if one of the big guys decide to hedge their bets by buying you out.  The gravy train is rolling into the station!  All aboard!

:Anyhow, the clock is ticking (or LCDing more likely).   July and August, everybody is at the lake, beach or BBQ.  The voters don't want to hear about politics during the good ol' summer time.  The first week of September is back-to-school, which is an attention-grabber for those with little kids.  So, everything has gotta be in place for an 8 week sprint.  And the local electioneering signal has gotta get above the noise of the Presidential election.  At the same time, the mayor's race campaigns can't get to the point of obnoxious.  Then, Joe and Jame Citizen'll just zone out the whole thing.


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