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Posted by Menendez to Quit ?? on August 01, 2004 at 22:38:45:

In Reply to: Menendez Wants to Quit ?? posted by Out of Character for Boss Bobalou on August 01, 2004 at 22:34:08:

N.J. wannabes do dance of ambition

Friday, July 30, 2004

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. - State Sen. John Adler is standing in Harvard Yard, describing famous occupants of the freshman dorms to about 100 politicians, union leaders, and other New Jersey Democrats who took up Adler's offer of a walking tour of his undergraduate alma mater and law school.

"Over there was where Al Gore roomed with Tommy Lee Jones," Adler begins, moving on to the dorms of Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and 2004 nominee John Kerry. "And over there is where E.E. Cmm ings, the poet, and John Adler, the wannabe, lived, at different times of course."

Adler, a four-term legislator from Cherry Hill who is chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee, later describes the "wannabe" line as a throwaway joke, but it applies to him and a lot of other people in and around the New Jersey delegation these days.

Outwardly, the dutiful Democrats feign confusion when asked about aspirations to be governor or U.S. senator. What do you mean, they ask, we already have Jim McGreevey, Jon Corzine, and Frank Lautenberg, and they're doing a great job.

Then they move in close and try to

make you hear over the din of the never-ending coc ktail parties why the guy with the best shot of being the next governor or senator is Adler, or Rep. Rob Andrews of Bellmawr, or Rep. Robert Menendez of Hoboken, or Rep. Frank Pallone of West Long Branch, or

Rep. Bill Pascrell of Paterson, or Rep. Steve Rothman of Fair Lawn.

The variables in these scenarios are the kinds that mathematicians win Nobel Prizes for devising.

One overriding variable is who wins the White House in November, but the two possible answers only open numerous more possibilities. A Bush win could mean that U.S. Attorney Chris Christie stays out of the race for the Republican nomination for governor, which reduces the possibility that county bosses will want McGreevey out of the race as well, because the rest of the GOP field is not considered as threatening.

Without an open governor's seat, attention then shifts to the Senate, which would increase pressure on the 80-year-old Lautenberg to let one of the younger guys move up the ladder. Lautenberg, who came out of retirement when the party called on him to fill in for Bob Torricelli in 2002, says he sees no reason why he might not seek another term in 2008.

"The funny thing is all these people who are coming to see me and saying, 'I hope you live to be 120 and have a 60-year term.' Because implicit in that is a, 'I want you to know that just in case, God forbid, I would be willing to step in and serve the state of New Jersey,'Ÿ" Lautenberg said.

"I'm not shy about saying 'You should do what you want,' but I caution their contributors: I may want their help, too. It depends how I feel. I have a nice option to call in three years."

A Kerry win increases the potential for prosecutor Christie to run for governor, but it also means the White House has a host of high-profile jobs to offer Democratic wannabes, or to already-bes to create vacancies for wannabes. One scenario goes like this: Christie's entrance in the race somehow gets McGreevey out, either because of pressure from party bosses or some kind of offer from the Kerry team.

Of course, that possibility is lessened somewhat since Kerry folks are still ticked off that McGreevey endorsed Howard Dean, but they might not be so ticked off that they want their first year in office to be marked by a Democratic loss in New Jersey.

No one expects there to be a primary to oust McGreevey, but if he does somehow exit stage left, then Corzine is expected to emerge from the wings as the white knight governor. But Corzine may not want to leave Washington, especially if Democrats win back control of the Senate and he garners some powerful committee assignments. He may also join a Kerry administration as treasury secretary.

First to be considered for a vacant Corzine seat would be Menendez, the third-ranking member of the House leadership who was widely expected to go for that seat when Lautenberg vacated it in 2000. He had almost $2.2 million in his campaign account on June 30, but for a member of the House to run for Senate, he has to give up a sure thing for the possibility of sudden unemployment.

I heard scenarios this week that had Menendez deciding not to risk it, deciding he likes being in the House leadership too much to leave, or deciding he's so tired of being in the minority in Washington that he leaves politics altogether for some high-paying job in the private sector. Or maybe he joins the Kerry administration.

Sense a theme developing here? There could be a big Democratic primary for senator, or for governor, in which case regional bases come into play. Counties might offer support for one their region's Senate candidate in exchange for future support for the other region's gubernatorial candidate.

People close to Rothman, who had $1 million on hand June 30, point out that his district reaches into Democratic strongholds of Bergen, Passaic and Hudson counties, and he "has friends" in Essex. If he had the line in those counties, it would be hard for any primary opponent to capture the nomination.

But Adler's stock shot up this year when most of the Democratic leadership lined up behind Dean and he stayed with Kerry. He's now got a federal fund-raising account that had $112,000 on June 30, but he says that's still a feat considering the speculative nature of the contributions.

He's making many visits to party cliques all over New Jersey as a Kerry campaigner, which can help. Of course, Rothman has also been accepting invitations to talk in such locales as Cumberland County.

If Kerry were in the White House and he wanted to thank Adler and asked the party to give him a Senate vacancy, would the bosses say no? Of course, Kerry could also make Adler the U.S. attorney to replace Christie.

Former Gov. Brendan T. Byrne, a Harvard law school graduate who went along on Adler's walking tour earlier this week, said the state senator would be a strong contender for statewide office.

"He's a clean politician from South Jersey, and that's saying something," Byrne said.

But others in the delegation see him as a second-tier possibility, given the ambitions of other House members who have wanted to move up longer.

Andrews, a familiar face to many in South Jersey because of his effective use of Philadelphia TV, has the second-biggest bankroll after Menendez, with $1.3 million as of June 30. Andrews, who lost the 1997 gubernatorial primary to McGreevey, caused a flurry during the winter when he said people were asking him to run against McGreevey and he would not rule it out. For now, he says he's focused on winning his House seat again.

"If you spend too much time wanting to be something else, usually you don't get it, because you're not spending enough time doing what you're supposed to be doing," he said.

But for many in New Jersey politics, plotting the next move is the only use of time that is worthwhile

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