Posted by Political Insider on October 16, 2004 at 22:29:10:

In Reply to: Political Insider posted by Questions Poll Paid for by Healy on October 16, 2004 at 19:05:43:

: POLITICAL INSIDER
: Ties to pollster taints numbers
: Saturday, October 16, 2004
: Most camps in the Jersey City mayoral race do their polls to see where their candidates stand and to come up with strategies to improve their position. It is when poll results are released that you have to wonder about their validity - particularly when the candidate who is the beneficiary of the results releases it and he or she is also the person who commissioned it.

: This brings us to the polling results in the race to complete the remaining seven months of the late Mayor Glenn D. Cunningham's term. The poll was conducted for Councilman at Large Jerramiah Healy by McLaughlin & Associates, with offices in Blauvelt, N.Y., and Alexandria, Va.

:
: The poll shows Healy ahead of state Assemblyman Lou Manzo by nearly 3 points, 24.7 to 12. It has acting Mayor L. Harvey Smith next, at 13, followed by former Councilwoman Willie Flood, 11, Councilman Steve Lipski, 2, and no one else on the radar. There also is 27.3 percent undecided.

: McLaughlin & Associates is considered a reputable polling firm in many circles, though some consider it a Republican-friendly polling firm. The problem is that it has a business relationship with Healy campaign leader Buddy Demellier, who has been known to hand out M&A business cards.

: The survey sampling is 300 likely voters, taken Oct. 10-11. The number of voters surveyed is considered small, and Oct. 10 also was the date of an interesting New York Times article reviewing the Jersey City election.

: Back in September, the pollster had Healy with 13.3 and Manzo on top with 15.7. Smith was second with 14. This suggests a monumental leap to the top for Healy in just one month. Is the councilman in trouble?

: Hudson County Executive Tom DeGise has a lot invested in Healy. The Jersey City Democratic Party picked their candidate and pretty much turned away any influence by the county Dems and U.S. Rep. Robert Menendez, who apparently decided not to support any candidate and just deal with whoever gets in office.

: It didn't stop the Jersey City clan of the Dems from going around and asking for and getting some campaign money from the other Hudson mayors, according to one of those chief executives.

: The problem came two weeks ago, when they went around for a second helping of funding assistance from the mayors - and were shut out, according to several Democrats close to the city and county organizations.

: OK, how does one deal with this perceived lack of faith? Some in the county suggest that this was the objective of the poll - provide optimism.

: Look for the Healy camp to start throwing everything into this battle over the next two weeks. The tactic will be to convince voters that a vote for Manzo is a vote for former Mayor Gerry McCann. There are already small orange stickers linking Manzo and McCann being placed on the assemblyman's campaign posters.

: "People are turned off by McCann," said Paul Swibinski, of Vision Media Marketing of Secaucus. "This is a man who had urin-ated in City Hall offices when he left. This is the man who Lou Manzo associates with?"

: Swibinski said he has not been hired as a media consultant by the Healy camp, although he did say his firm did a Spanish-language television spot for the councilman.

: While Manzo said that McCann does not speak for him and that the former mayor will not be a part of his city administration, the state Assemblyman wonders aloud how it was OK for McCann to work with his opponents in the past, and suddenly becomes a menace because he supports Manzo.

: Still, there is some uneasiness within Manzo's Ward A club, where his backers would rather not rub shoulders with McCann. Look for more McCann attacks - if you can picture this.

: Healy supporters say there will be much more said about Manzo's recommendation to hire Daniel McMann for appointment to the Jersey City Department of Health and Human Services. McMann was recently blamed for the state levying $105,000 in fines for the department's failure to file state-required reports on hazardous substances. Manzo has acknowledged that McMann was hired on his recommendation.

: Mayoral candidate Steve Lipski made the charge two weeks ago in the city's first mayoral debate at the Loew's Jersey Theater.

Follow Ups:

• Re: Political Insider Swibinksi is a Rumor Monger 23:37:45 10/16/04 (1)
  • Paul Swibinski Unindicted Co-conspiritor (And Bobby J Operative) 11:53:09 10/17/04 (0)

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Comments:
: : POLITICAL INSIDER 
: : Ties to pollster taints numbers 
: : Saturday, October 16, 2004
: : Most camps in the Jersey City mayoral race do their polls to see where their candidates stand and to come up with strategies to improve their position. It is when poll results are released that you have to wonder about their validity - particularly when the candidate who is the beneficiary of the results releases it and he or she is also the person who commissioned it. 

: : This brings us to the polling results in the race to complete the remaining seven months of the late Mayor Glenn D. Cunningham's term. The poll was conducted for Councilman at Large Jerramiah Healy by McLaughlin & Associates, with offices in Blauvelt, N.Y., and Alexandria, Va. 

: :  
: : The poll shows Healy ahead of state Assemblyman Lou Manzo by nearly 3 points, 24.7 to 12. It has acting Mayor L. Harvey Smith next, at 13, followed by former Councilwoman Willie Flood, 11, Councilman Steve Lipski, 2, and no one else on the radar. There also is 27.3 percent undecided. 

: : McLaughlin & Associates is considered a reputable polling firm in many circles, though some consider it a Republican-friendly polling firm. The problem is that it has a business relationship with Healy campaign leader Buddy Demellier, who has been known to hand out M&A business cards. 

: : The survey sampling is 300 likely voters, taken Oct. 10-11. The number of voters surveyed is considered small, and Oct. 10 also was the date of an interesting New York Times article reviewing the Jersey City election. 

: : Back in September, the pollster had Healy with 13.3 and Manzo on top with 15.7. Smith was second with 14. This suggests a monumental leap to the top for Healy in just one month. Is the councilman in trouble? 

: : Hudson County Executive Tom DeGise has a lot invested in Healy. The Jersey City Democratic Party picked their candidate and pretty much turned away any influence by the county Dems and U.S. Rep. Robert Menendez, who apparently decided not to support any candidate and just deal with whoever gets in office. 

: : It didn't stop the Jersey City clan of the Dems from going around and asking for and getting some campaign money from the other Hudson mayors, according to one of those chief executives. 

: : The problem came two weeks ago, when they went around for a second helping of funding assistance from the mayors - and were shut out, according to several Democrats close to the city and county organizations. 

: : OK, how does one deal with this perceived lack of faith? Some in the county suggest that this was the objective of the poll - provide optimism. 

: : Look for the Healy camp to start throwing everything into this battle over the next two weeks. The tactic will be to convince voters that a vote for Manzo is a vote for former Mayor Gerry McCann. There are already small orange stickers linking Manzo and McCann being placed on the assemblyman's campaign posters. 

: : "People are turned off by McCann," said Paul Swibinski, of Vision Media Marketing of Secaucus. "This is a man who had urin-ated in City Hall offices when he left. This is the man who Lou Manzo associates with?" 

: : Swibinski said he has not been hired as a media consultant by the Healy camp, although he did say his firm did a Spanish-language television spot for the councilman. 

: : While Manzo said that McCann does not speak for him and that the former mayor will not be a part of his city administration, the state Assemblyman wonders aloud how it was OK for McCann to work with his opponents in the past, and suddenly becomes a menace because he supports Manzo. 

: : Still, there is some uneasiness within Manzo's Ward A club, where his backers would rather not rub shoulders with McCann. Look for more McCann attacks - if you can picture this. 

: : Healy supporters say there will be much more said about Manzo's recommendation to hire Daniel McMann for appointment to the Jersey City Department of Health and Human Services. McMann was recently blamed for the state levying $105,000 in fines for the department's failure to file state-required reports on hazardous substances. Manzo has acknowledged that McMann was hired on his recommendation. 

: : Mayoral candidate Steve Lipski made the charge two weeks ago in the city's first mayoral debate at the Loew's Jersey Theater. 


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