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Re: Poll Figures - Healy Commanding Lead - Ward E, C Upset

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Jersey City Guide

Posted by jim on May 06, 2005 at 00:01:06:

In Reply to: Re: Poll Figures - Healy Commanding Lead - Ward E, C Upset posted by Stats Guy on May 04, 2005 at 19:33:36:

The fact of the matter is clients of polling companies are not willing to pay the money to sample adequate numbers. It's too expensive. It's a shame that our science comes down to such realities, but otherwise we'd be out of business.

: Well, your initial post is not very clear at all. 500 people were polled from where??? All wards, some wards? Does the 3.5% margin of error apply to the mayoral race. If so, how can you have such a small margin of error with only 500 samples? Does the power rule come to mind?

: : :hey genius - there aren't 17,000 registered HH in Ward C. And certainly not 17,000 prime voting HH in Ward C. Get it together.


: : : Your poll figures are highly questionable. I am a Statistician, and you know you cannot have a margin of error of only 3.5% with only 500 out of 17,000. This is crap statistical reporting, and you know it. And I will not even go into any bias of your sampling techniques and such. Why post?

:
: : : : DISCLAIMER: In a telephone poll conducted of 500 likely registered voters in Jersey City 4/28/05 - 5/2/05, the economy ranked top issue with 33% of the vote and crime following closely with 26%. The poll has a margin of error +/- 3.5%

: : : : RACES:
: : : : Jersey City Mayor Jerramiah Healy dominates the mayoral field with a commanding 62%. Melissa Holloway follows with 21% and Alfred Pine rounds out the field with 17%. Healy's slate shows strong support across the city except in Ward C and Ward E.

: : : : In Ward E, Steve Fulop at 54% is currently the favored among voters with a 6% margin over incumbent Junior Maldonado. And in Ward C, Dr. Joseph Buttigheri is posting a surprising 42% of the vote, leading Steve Lipski with 33% and James King who trails with 21% of the vote.

: : : : Issues:
: : : : Economy: 33%
: : : : Crime: 26%
: : : : Education 19%
: : : : Housing 13%
: : : : Other 9%

: : : : Mayor:
: : : : Healy: 62%
: : : : Holloway: 21%
: : : : Pine: 17%

: : : : # # #

: : : : www.strategicopinion.com



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